Methodology

CoinBucha surfaces leading, non-price Bitcoin indicators as a signal_strength (0–100), a direction (tailwind / headwind / neutral) and a one-line why. Every signal is information, not financial advice — it describes an observable condition, never a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold.

Signals

S1 · Sovereign adoption

descriptive

strength = clamp(40 + holder_states×4 + pipeline_states×6). Direction tailwind when ≥1 state has announced or proposed legislation. Describes verified state holdings.

Source: CoinBucha Sovereign Bitcoin Reserve Monitor (primary-source confirmed)

S4 · Bitcoin & crypto-infra hiring velocity

not yet backtested

strength = clamp(50 + Δ%_30d × 1.5). Aggregate open roles across tracked firms; deltas accrue from real daily history. The 'hiring leads price' claim is under backtest and not yet validated.

Source: Live ATS APIs: Block, River (Bitcoin-pure); Gemini, BitGo, Fireblocks (crypto-infra)

S5 · Network hashrate trend

not yet backtested

strength = clamp(50 + Δ%_30d × 2.5). 30/90-day change in network hashrate. Rising hashrate = miner conviction / security; the 'leads price' claim is not yet backtested.

Source: blockchain.info hash-rate chart

Validation status

We distinguish descriptive signals (facts, e.g. how much BTC states hold) from predictive claims (e.g. "hiring leads price"). Predictive claims ship flagged validated: false until a backtest with a sufficient sample supports them. Current backtest status for hiring velocity is tracked in the repository (docs/backtest-hiring.md) and re-run as history accrues.

Principles

Primary sources first; every signal carries its sources.
Methodology and data are public — auditability is the point.
No surface presents a signal as advice.
Seed/illustrative values, if ever present, are flagged seed: true.

Machine-readable access: the same signals are served to AI agents over MCP at https://coinbucha.com/api/mcp.