CoinBucha

Methodology

Each signal carries a signal_strength (0–100), direction (tailwind / headwind / neutral), and a one-line why. Every signal is information, not financial advice.

Signals

S1 · Sovereign adoption

descriptive

strength = clamp(40 + holder_states×4 + pipeline_states×6). Direction tailwind when ≥1 state has announced or proposed legislation. Describes verified state holdings.

Source: CoinBucha Sovereign Bitcoin Reserve Monitor (primary-source confirmed)

S2 · Spot Bitcoin ETF net flows

descriptive

strength = clamp(50 + 5-day net flow / $50M). Direction tailwind on net inflows, headwind on net outflows. Describes actual measured creations/redemptions — a direct read on institutional demand.

Source: CoinGlass — Bitcoin ETF flow history

S3 · Corporate Bitcoin treasuries

descriptive

strength = clamp(55 + 30-day % change × 3). Total BTC held by public companies; direction tailwind as aggregate holdings grow. Describes verified company holdings — structural institutional demand. (S2 spot-ETF flows needs a paid data source; this is the free, live institutional signal.)

Source: CoinGecko — public company Bitcoin treasuries

S4 · Bitcoin & crypto-infra hiring velocity

not yet backtested

strength = clamp(50 + Δ%_30d × 1.5). Aggregate open roles across tracked firms; deltas accrue from real daily history. The 'hiring leads price' claim is under backtest and not yet validated.

Source: Live ATS APIs: Block, River (Bitcoin-pure); Gemini, BitGo, Fireblocks (crypto-infra)

S5 · Network hashrate trend

not yet backtested

strength = clamp(50 + Δ%_30d × 2.5). 30/90-day change in network hashrate. Rising hashrate = miner conviction / security; the 'leads price' claim is not yet backtested.

Source: blockchain.info hash-rate chart

Validation status

Descriptive signals are verified facts (e.g. sovereign holdings). Predictive claims ship flagged validated: false until backtested. Hiring-velocity backtest status: docs/backtest-hiring.md.

Principles

Machine-readable: coinbucha.com/api/mcp